ABSTRACT
Objective: To introduce the principle and method ofa-Sutte model, establish a a-Sutte model by using software R, compare the fitting and prediction effects of thea-Sutte model and multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, SARIMA model and provides reference for the application of thea-Sutte model in epidemic prediction.
ABSTRACT
AIM: This study aimed to identify the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of paediatric cases. METHODS: Information on 1369 paediatric cases with COVID-19 from 8 December 2019 to 7 March 2020 in Hubei province was extracted from the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System. The analysis included epidemic curves, temporal-spatial distribution, clinical classification and interval times between onset and diagnosis. RESULTS: Among 1369 paediatric cases, the median age was 9 years and 58.2% of them were males. The proportion of severe and critical cases in children was lower than that in adults and the proportion of asymptomatic cases in children was five times greater than for adult cases. The first paediatric case was reported on 2 January 2020, and the daily number of new paediatric cases remained high from 1 February through to 22 February. The epidemiological curve of paediatric cases lagged behind that of adults by 19 days, and the first spike of the epidemic curve in senior high school students occurred 1 week earlier than in other paediatric groups. The proportion of clustered cases among children was about twice that for adults. The median of the interval in paediatric cases between onset and diagnosis, isolation and notification were 3, 0 and 3 days, respectively, and all of those were significantly shorter than in adults. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemic curve of child cases lagged behind that of adult cases by 19 days, and the major form of transmission observed was in clusters.